Belarus’s Military Dependence on Russia: A Deep Dive
Belarus’s military sovereignty is a topic of intense debate, with some arguing that the country is fully dependent on Russia. Major General Illia Pavlenko, a former Ukrainian defense intelligence official, made a compelling case at the Ostrozky Forum, highlighting the extent of Belarus’s military ties with Russia.
The Case for Military Dependence
Pavlenko asserts that Belarus lacks military sovereignty due to a long-standing partnership with Russia. He points to joint military exercises using Russian equipment and the unrestricted movement of Russian military personnel within Belarus as evidence. These exercises, he claims, are not just for training but also for strategic planning, including rapid troop transfers along specific routes.
Agreements and Military Doctrine
The erosion of Belarusian sovereignty is further evidenced by bilateral agreements, changes to military doctrine, the creation of a joint military group, and defense sector cooperation. These factors collectively indicate a loss of military autonomy.
Intelligence Services and Russian Interests
Belarusian intelligence services, according to Pavlenko, are also aligned with Russian interests. This alignment extends to the defense industry, where Belarusian enterprises are fulfilling Russian defense orders, including the production of armor, rockets, artillery shells, microchips for Kalibr missiles, and ammunition.
Valery Kabanchuk’s Insights
Valery Kabanchuk, a security and defense representative, confirmed that over 500 Belarusian enterprises are under Russian state defense contracts. These contracts not only help Russian companies bypass sanctions but also position Belarus as an ‘assembly shop’ for Russian military needs.
Kabanchuk further noted that Belarusian defense enterprises are involved in manufacturing control units for ‘Satan’ intercontinental ballistic missiles, modernizing Russian equipment, and producing UAVs. This extensive involvement in the Russian military-industrial complex is a direct result of Lukashenko’s personal decision.
Militarization Beyond the Economy
The militarization of Belarus extends beyond the economy to society as a whole. Kabanchuk mentioned the involvement of children in military-patriotic training camps and changes to legislation, including administrative, labor, criminal, and constitutional norms related to martial law. The country is also developing military-purpose infrastructure, which raises concerns about its potential use in conflict scenarios.
The Future of Belarus’s Military Role
By mid-2027, Belarusian defense enterprises are expected to reach maximum capacity, making them available for both the war in Ukraine and potential conflicts with NATO countries. This development underscores the complex and controversial nature of Belarus’s military relationship with Russia, leaving the international community with important questions to consider.